Seminario 14/26: M.A.CARNERO (UA) – Identification of asymmetric conditional heteroskedasticity in the presence of outliers

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ABSTRACT: The identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity is often based on sample cross-correlations between past and squared observations. In this paper we analyse the effects of outliers on these cross-correlations and, consequently, on the identification of asymmetric volatilities. We show that, as expected, one isolated big outlier biases the sample cross-correlations towards zero and hence could hide true leverage…

Seminario 14/22 – Enrique SENTANA (CEMFI): Is a normal copula the right copula?

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Abstract   Nowadays copulas are extensively used in economic and finance applications, with the Gaussian copula being very popular despite ruling out non-linear dependence, particularly in the lower tail. We derive computationally simple and intuitive expressions for score tests of Gaussian copulas against Generalised Hyperbolic alternatives, which include the symmetric and asymmetric Student t, and Hermite polynomial expansions. We…

Seminario nº18: The two greatest, Great Recession vs. Great Moderation

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Abstract: The collapse of the global economy in 2008, following the outbreak of the financial crisis, and the ensuing economic developments of the so-called Great Recession (GR), led many economists to suggest that the relative oasis in which we had lived for almost a quarter of a century, known as the Great Moderation (GM), had indeed…