Ensayos de crimen, conflicto y asuntos electorales: análisis económico para Colombia

  • Autor: Enrique Javier Burbano Valencia
  • Director/es: Josep E. Peris Ferrando y Marcello Sartarelli
  • Defensa: 18/2/2021 - Universidad de Alicante
  • Tribunal: Joaquín ARtés, Ana Hidalgo Cabrillana, Ignacio Jurado
  • Calificación: Sobresaliente cum laude
  • Ver publicaciones relacionadas

RESUMEN

Esta tesis doctoral consta de cuatro capítulos con dos ejes fundamentales de investigación. En primer lugar, un análisis económico de las altas tasas del crimen en la ciudad de Cali-Colombia (tercera más poblada de este país latinoamericano) desde dos ángulos: sus efectos regresivos sobre la riqueza de los hogares y la efectividad de la intervención pública para reducir dicho fenómeno. En segundo lugar, se estudia de la influencia del gasto de campaña en las elecciones de alcaldes municipales en Colombia con la novedad, frente a la literatura actual, de plantear una extensión del modelo la competencia política de Hotelling-Downs (1929, 1957), y de incluir en los contrastes las condiciones institucionales particulares del caso colombiano, entre ellas la presencia de actividades militares y políticas de organizaciones ilegales armadas no estatales (paramilitares y guerrilla). Algo que tienen en común estas organizaciones y aquellas que desarrollan actividades criminales en Cali es que monopolizan la violencia para sus objetivos privados. Este fenómeno es el que cohesiona los dos ejes de investigación que aquí se proponen.

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The model of Mills (1972) is extended to include the homicide per commune (from 2005 to 2012) as a measure of social distance, and to quantify the effect of this phenomenon on land prices (mean appraisals). Using an annual panel, the estimates of the model --- the family violence rate being the instrumental variable --- show that an increase in the homicide rate of one unit reduces the appraisals by 1.6%. One plausible interpretation is that homicides operate as a regressive tax on property wealth in Cali because it is more concentrated in the communes of the lower socio-economic stratum, systematically expanding the intra-urban social distance. 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The model of Mills (1972) is extended to include the homicide per commune (from 2005 to 2012) as a measure of social distance, and to quantify the effect of this phenomenon on land prices (mean appraisals). Using an annual panel, the estimates of the model --- the family violence rate being the instrumental variable --- show that an increase in the homicide rate of one unit reduces the appraisals by 1.6%. One plausible interpretation is that homicides operate as a regressive tax on property wealth in Cali because it is more concentrated in the communes of the lower socio-economic stratum, systematically expanding the intra-urban social distance. 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