Three Essays on the interconnection between the external sector and domestic macroeconomic performance

  • Autor: Alfonso Camba Crespo
  • Director/es: José García Solanes y Fernando E. Torrejón Flores
  • Defensa: 1/3/2022 - Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
  • Tribunal: Marian Camarero, Máximo Camacho, Mariano Matilla
  • Calificación: Sobresaliente
  • Ver publicaciones relacionadas

Resumen

This thesis analyses the interaction between the external sector and domestic macroeconomic performance. It is based on both theoretical and empirical analysis, working with a wide range of countries to better capture the underlying macroeconomic links. There is growing interest in the interaction between external and domestic variables as a result of the drastic acceleration of international economic integration brought about by amplified commercial, financial and migratory flows. This interaction is highly relevant since it affects macroeconomic outcomes and the effectiveness of the economic policy. Therefore, a precise understanding and diagnosis of such interactions are essential to the design of policies that help economies to become, and remain, robust and stable. The interaction of macroeconomic internal and external imbalances and external sector stability are complex issues, raising multiple questions which can be studied from several perspectives. In this thesis, the study of these questions is divided into three main chapters, each one focused on particular issues. Specifically, the first chapter studies current-account stability spells and the determinants of current-account breaks. The second one examines the interaction between current-account imbalances, exchange rates, and domestic and global output gaps. Finally, the third chapter analyzes how international developments may have modified the Phillips curve, in particular through the impact of foreign competition.

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This influence is transmitted through two channels: a) the gap between the current and potential growth of imports, and b) real exchange-rate misalignment. We estimate this OEPC by applying two econometric techniques, panel regressions and PVAR accompanied by impulse/response analysis. A sample of 15 advanced economies is used with data for the period 1994-2017. The results from both methodologies endorse the validity of this theoretical relationship and suggest that international competition reduces the pricing power of domestic firms, thereby curbing inflationary pressures. We also find that the slope of the OEPC has significantly declined in the years after the Great Recession. [post_title] => External Competition Flattens the Phillips Curve [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => external-competition-flattens-the-phillips-curve [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-04-08 17:41:28 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-04-08 15:41:28 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://doctoradodecide.com/?post_type=publicaciones&p=3336 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publicaciones [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 3331 [post_author] => 19 [post_date] => 2022-03-29 13:15:15 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-03-29 11:15:15 [post_content] => Abstract This study analyzes the relationships between domestic and foreign output gaps, current-account imbalances, and real effective exchange-rate (REER) misalignments. We first set up a theoretical framework based on the elasticities and absorption approaches of the balance of payments to derive and clarify these relationships. Next, we perform panel VAR estimates in a sample of 18 advanced economies between 1986 and 2017. We find an inverse relationship between domestic output gaps and current accounts with reciprocal influences between the two variables. Moreover, we observe that increases in current accounts generally boost both temporary and structural growth. Additionally, our results indicate that REER misalignment shocks cause reactions of the opposite sign on the current account and on cyclical economic growth. We also find evidence of higher growth resulting in a real exchange-rate appreciation, which supports the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. [post_title] => Current-Account Imbalances, Real Exchange-Rate Misalignments, and Output Gaps [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => open [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => current-account-imbalances-real-exchange-rate-misalignments-and-output-gaps [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-03-29 13:15:37 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-03-29 11:15:37 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://doctoradodecide.com/?post_type=publicaciones&p=3331 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publicaciones [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 3118 [post_author] => 1 [post_date] => 2021-07-26 13:12:44 [post_date_gmt] => 2021-07-26 11:12:44 [post_content] => Purpose – This study aims to identify structural breaks in the current account and the periods between these breaks, which the authors name stability spells, and study their characteristics and determinants. Design/methodology/approach – Using data from the IMF and the World Bank, this study applies the Lee and Strazicich test to endogenously identify breaks and the Heckman selection model to simultaneously study the determinants of structural breaks and current-account changes after breaks. Findings – This study identifies 212 significant structural breaks and 341 stability spells. These spells become shorter and more volatile the further they are from equilibrium, and half of them last 10 years or less. The results show that economic growth and foreign-exchange piling are particularly useful to prevent breaks, while lower per capita income increases exposure to break risks. Originality/value – This study introduces the concept of current-account stability spells to refer to the periods between structural breaks. These spells are then studied to determine their main characteristics. The authors also apply a global perspective in their analysis, using a wide sample of 181 economies between 1980 and 2018 and considering positive and negative breaks in both level and trend. Keywords – Current-account breaks, Current-account stability spells, Selection model, Unit-root test with structural changes.   [post_title] => Current-account breaks and stability spells in a global perspective [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => open [post_password] => [post_name] => current-account-breaks-and-stability-spells-in-a-global-perspective [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-03-10 19:10:57 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-03-10 18:10:57 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => http://doctoradodecide.com/?post_type=publicaciones&p=3118 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => publicaciones [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 3 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 3336 [post_author] => 19 [post_date] => 2022-04-08 12:22:57 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-04-08 10:22:57 [post_content] => Abstract In this paper, we elaborate an open economy Phillips curve (OEPC) with micro-founded analysis, in which external competition significantly impacts the domestic inflation rate. This influence is transmitted through two channels: a) the gap between the current and potential growth of imports, and b) real exchange-rate misalignment. We estimate this OEPC by applying two econometric techniques, panel regressions and PVAR accompanied by impulse/response analysis. A sample of 15 advanced economies is used with data for the period 1994-2017. The results from both methodologies endorse the validity of this theoretical relationship and suggest that international competition reduces the pricing power of domestic firms, thereby curbing inflationary pressures. We also find that the slope of the OEPC has significantly declined in the years after the Great Recession. 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