Seminario 19/32: Gabriel Brida (U. de la Republica) -On the empirical relationship between tourism and economic growth.

Información

Abstract: In this paper we study the dynamics of economic growth and tourism evolution for 97 countries during the period 1995-2016. The variables representing economic and tourism growth are growth rates of per capita GDP and international tourism arrivals. Using the concept of economic regime, we introduce a notion of distance between the dynamical paths of different countries. Then, a Minimal Spanning Tree and a Hierarchical Tree are constructed from time series to help detecting the existence of groups of countries sharing similar performance. The two main clusters that are identified over the whole time interval, can be interpreted as two groups of countries with high and low performance in the tourism sector. The evolution of such clusters shows three main stylized facts: certain  countries move across clusters; the high performance cluster tends to span, while the low performance one tends to be (more) compact; the distance between the two groups increases in time.