Nebot, C. (UPCT-CUD, San Javier, Murcia), García-Solanes, J. (U. de Murcia) and Beyaert, A. (U. de Murcia)- New insights into the nonlinearity of the ECB Taylor Rule

Abstract We apply a nonparametric procedure, Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), to endogenously select the best multiple threshold model for the European Central Bank (ECB) Taylor Rule (TR). MARS offers the advantage of not excluding simpler models if they better t the data. On monthly data from 1/2000 to 9/2016, the TR exhibits thresholds for…

Seminario 18/11: Jesús Vázquez (U. País Vasco)-The bond term premium in an estimated DSGE model with real-time learning

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ABSTRACT: Adaptive learning (AL) takes over other features needed to generate a sizable term premium under rational expectations. Indeed, a time-varying term premium emerges in a first-order approximation of a DSGE model under AL. We estimate a real-time AL model that builds on Slobodyan and Wouters (2012a). Our extension disentangles the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EH)…

Seminario 18/8: Emilio Cerdá (U. Complutense)-Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Energy Power – Four Wind Farms in Spain

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This paper addresses the long-term impacts of climate change on wind speed and, therefore, on wind energy generation. A projection of wind speed was carried out for four selected wind farms in Spain, using an ensemble of three climate models, two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two time periods (2018-2041 and 2042-2065) per plant….

Seminario 18/7: Manuela Magalhänes (Portucalense University, Porto; CEFAGE, Évora and OBEGEF, Porto)- A multi-sector growth model with technology diffusion and networks

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Abstract: This paper adds the standard input–output linkages into a multi-sector endogenous growth model to study the interaction effects between linkages and technology adoption for aggregate productivity and for income per capita. We show that the greater the intensity with which a good is used as input by other sectors, the smaller are the technology…

Iñaki Permanyer (Centre d’Estudis Demogràphics, Barcelona)- Measuring poverty in multidimensional contexts

Abstract: When measuring multidimensional poverty it is reasonable to expect that the trade-offs between variable pairs can differ depending on whether the concerned pairs are complements or substitutes. Yet, currently existing approaches based on deprivation count distributions unrealistically assume that all pairs of variables are related in the same way — –an unfortunate circumstance that…

Seminario 18/04: Francisco Alcalá Agulló (Universidad de Murcia)- Growth Sustainability and the Quality Dimension of Consumption

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Abstract Which are the factors affecting the long run sustainability of GDP growth? This paper discusses a potentially important one that has been disregarded so far: the shift in advanced economies from quantity to quality growth. First, the paper lays down a simple model introducing the quality dimension of consumption into the IPAT analytical framework….

Seminario 18/01: Mª Pilar Martínez García (U. Murcia) – Tourism, environment and growth in an economy with pollution abatement activities

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Abstract In this paper a dynamic model of economic growth, tourism and environment is studied. The model considers tourists in the economy as optimizing agents, interacting with domestic consumers. The number of tourists arriving in the country follows the Tourism Are Life-cycle model with a tourism carrying capacity dependent on environmental quality. Tourism hurts environment and abatement activities have…

Seminario 17/21:- José Rueda Llano (Friedrich-Schiller University) – Incentive Compatible Price Adjustments in Large Markets

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Abstract The appeal of the concept of perfectly competitive equilibrium (PCE), to describe the outcome of trade in competitive markets, relies on three assumptions: 1) in the absence of frictions, PCE is the result of the centralized or decentralized interaction of rational agents, 2) whenever the market is out of equilibrium, an adjustment process would…

Seminario 16/14: – Mª Pilar Martínez García (U. Murcia)- Policy implications of non-constant discounting in an endogenous growth model with pollution abatement

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Abstract: We analyze the effect of non-constant discounting on the sustainability of economic growth in a model with pollution and abatement. A balanced path equilibrium with decreasing pollution exists under plausible assumptions considering time-consistent agents. Compared to exponential discounting, the social optimum when consumers discount a non-constant rate shows greater abatement and consumption expenditure shares…