Seminario 18/8: Emilio Cerdá (U. Complutense)-Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Energy Power – Four Wind Farms in Spain

Información

This paper addresses the long-term impacts of climate change on wind speed and, therefore, on wind energy generation. A projection of wind speed was carried out for four selected wind farms in Spain, using an ensemble of three climate models, two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two time periods (2018-2041 and 2042-2065) per plant. Using historical power curves, the changes in wind speed were converted to production output. The results show variations in production of up to 8% and changes in operating margins up to 9%. Seasonal generation may fluctuate as well, with an increase in summer and decrease in winter. An investment analysis was also conducted to consider how climate change may influence future investments in the sector.