Seminario 21/17: Luis Orea (Universidad de Oviedo): Estimating a stochastic epidemic frontier model that controls for undocumented COVID-19 cases with an application to Spain

Información

We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the
propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed
models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as
case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be
estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these
reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation. We
provide an empirical application of our models to Spanish data corresponding to the
initial months of the original outbreak of the virus in early 2019. We find remarkable
rates of under-reporting that might explain why the Spanish Government took its time
to implement strict mitigation strategies. We also provide insights into the effectiveness
of the national and regional lockdown measures and the influence of socio-economic
factors in the propagation of the virus.